Zonal

What a boring winter so far, zonal weather has been here for the last 10 days or so and is forecasted to stay at least for the first few weeks in Jan.








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Autumn!

What a glorious couple of days!  Today's high is 28.7 degrees and yesterday was 27.0. The sky at 8am today was so blue with not a cloud in sight and walking through the fields really reminded me of being in India. I'm looking forward to the season changes and what the winter might hold but I have really enjoyed the weather this weekend. 

Winter 2012-2013

So will this winter be colder than average or warmer???

A more detailed update will follow but I predict 2012-2013 will be like 2010-2011


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Just a quick collage showing the last few weeks weather, there's been plenty of rain but the last week has seen a slight return to summer, with blue skies and hot. Today the temperature hit 32.1 degrees.

 

Been for a walk

Rain total in mm - Jan - June

I went for a walk today and whilst walking through some big puddles I wondered how this year has really panned out compared to previous years and so I thought I would look at 2 key stats, Temp and Rain.

This year is said to be one of the wettest in a long time, with June being the wettest for over 100 years. For my stats though this year has not been the wettest even though it feels like it!. 2009 was actually wetter although it was in Jan and Feb. In June I had 91.4 mm of rain and this is my highest since I started recording in 2005.

Mean temps by month and Year

Temperature wise we have had the coldest May to June since 2005 with an average temperature of 14.9 degrees compared to an average since 2005 of 16.1. Year to date the average temp is 10.3 degrees compared to the last 6 compared of 10.8 degrees. Only 2009 was colder   

Finally some pictures of my walk today. I walked 6.5 miles in 1 hour 45 mins

Flash flood

Yesterday I posted that I had 30mm of rain on the 28th May and I was't sure if this was accurate. Good old Kennyboy challenge this number and said it was false and that the neighbour must have put the hope pipe in the sensor! With the bucket some 15 foot in the air and a hose pipe ban I thought this was unlikely but his comment made me do some research! The link below says it all really there were flash floods in Medway on this day. Unfortunately I was away at work and so could't verify but wife said it rained hard!

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway_messenger/news/2012/may/29/floods.aspx

So how Hard did it rain? I've looked back over the last 7 years of data and there has only been 6 days where it has rained over 23mm and only one day where it rained more than 30mm. This was on the 27th June 2009, on this day it rained a total of 30.2mm. So the chances of it raining more than or equal to 30mm is 0.08%

Also in 2009 it rained 30.2mm in a space of 90 minutes, this year the rain was over 45minutes so the rain must have been really hard. If you look at the table below the rain rates where much higher than in 2009

Overall then a rare occurrence which has meant that May's rain levels ended up above average even though we are still in a middle of a drought!

Quick update

So firstly how's the drought going? Actually May looked liked the rain was going to be below average as it never rained for nearly 2 weeks. From the 16th May through to the 28th May there was not one drop of rain! then on the 28th May we had 30 mm of rain in one day which took the rain levels well above average. 30mm of rain is really exceptional.

How about Temperatures? Interestingly so far in 2012 we have had 3 of the months at below average temperatures. May was just below average at 0.01 degrees cooler than average even though the press has been full of articles stating how warm it has been. There were some days above 25 degrees and the last 10 days of the month was generally nice and warm, it was warm enough for I to consider putting the air con on. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the year pans out!

Drought Update

The graph below shows my average rainfall by month since Oct 2005 compared to this year. April has prodcued 61mm of rain so far and we still have 2 days to go. It looks likely that May will continue wet and mild so hopefully the hose pipe ban will only last this year!!

Raining cats and dogs

In Chepstow tonight and here is a picture of the local river along side the hotel which is ready ready to burst due to heavy rain. The other photo is just the wonder fall valley I'm in!







At home I have had 10mm of rain today which means we have had the wettest April since I have started recording weather in 2005. So far with still 5 days to go we have had 50mm of rain on April.


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Location:Oxstalls Way,,United Kingdom

Funny old weather

What a funny old month April is turning out to be!
Rain is back on the cards which we really need. This april we have had 20mm of rain so far compared to 0.6mm for the whole of April 2011.
Actually I anticipate April's rain to be slightly above average based on tonight's country file forecast. I recon the month will end up above 40mm with my record being 38mm in 2006. This is great news for the rivers and gardens.
Temps are also considerably down this April at 7.7 degrees this year compared to 13 degrees last year and 8.2 degrees in Feb this year. Today there was "snow" for a brief spell when I drove home from Cambridge and this afternoon there was actually hailstones.
Just to show how the weather is behaving around the world currently, in America today there have been dangerous tornados which has killed at least 5 people.
Here is a photo of today's hailstones bouncing of the roof and filling the gutter.




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Location:Cliffe woods

Possible drought

The News this morning is stating that the South East will end up with a drought this year. So what does the stats say?

The table below shows the rainfall since Oct 2005 and you will see that last year was exceptionally dry at 418mm of rain (March and April only had 3mm of rain!!) Jan and Feb 2012 have started off the same as well.

So far in Feb we have only had 8 days of rain compared to 16 days last year and a record of 25 days of rain  in 2010.

The graph shows how the last 12 months rain has been compared to the average of the last 6.5 years.

Looks like the hosepipe won;t be coming out this year!!

	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC	TOT
2005										14	22	13	50
2006	5	39	27	38	66	30	16	56	64	64	45	63	514
2007	42	64	38	6	60	22	52	19	20	23	35	27	407
2008	50	11			71	29	59	87	47	59	104	33	550
2009	90	75	42	30	34	66	82	30	18	30	151	84	732
2010	38	90	47	12	26	33	14	90	34	62	38	40	524
2011	76	30	2	1	16	71	39	36	24	24	38	62	418
2012	35	12											47
MIN	5	11	2	1	16	22	14	19	18	14	22	13	407
MAX	90	90	47	38	71	71	82	90	64	64	151	84	732
AVG	48	46	31	17	45	42	44	53	35	39	62	46	519

Feb 2012 cold spell

With Last week's snow still around how cold has this could spell been? Today we have had a little snow shower and whilst driving home from Newcastle on Thursday the snow on the A1 and M11 was bordering on dangerous with the outside lane covered in snow. Great fun though especially driving with 2 new Pirelli tyres on the rear of the car after one of my other tyres developed a puncture whilst driving up on Monday. Whilst I hate run flats due to the price it was good to be able to run to Leeds on them before having them changed.

So some comparisons to previous Feb months and to the cold spell in 2010:

1st - 11th Feb	2012	-0.527
1st - 11th Feb	2011	7.8
1st - 11th Feb	2010	3.35
1st - 11th Feb	2009	1.32
1st - 11th Feb	2008	8.84
1st - 11th Feb	2007	4.2
1st - 11th Feb	2006	3.78
1st - 11th Dec	2010	0.245
25th - 9th Dec	2010	-0.586

You can see November into December 2010 was colder by 0.05 degrees but the cold spell was longer, over 15 days where the current cold spell will probably only be over  today at 12 days as temperatures will warm up from this afternoon.

So overall a great cold spell but not as great as 2010 where it was colder with 12 inches of snow and not 4.5!

Picture below is the snow still lying around.

Today's snow

Feb 5th snow Event!!

4.5 inches of snow

Well we received a dumping last night, in fact 4.5 inches of snow and much better than I thought. Temperatures have stayed low throughout today and this means the snow is still here.

The mean temp for today is - 0.4 and this is the 4th day in a row with a negative mean temp. To put this into perspective the last negative mean temp day for Cliffe Woods was the 26th December 2010. This just goes to show how mild 2011 really was.

With the temp outside dropping and snow still here there is expected to be a lot of black ice around overnight which is worrying as I need to drive to leeds first thing.

Clearing the drive

At least the drive is prepared as Pavan and I  have shovelled all the snow off.

We had great fun in the snow today, cleaning the drive, the cars, having a snow ball fight and then finally taking the sledge to the main hill in Cliffe woods.

It was packed, probably 100+ people there, all having fun. Pavan had a few near misses on his sledge with sign posts and a parked car. Unfortunately his lack of skill at controlling the sledge and with a non helpful push from Pinky he ended up underneath a wooden fence of someone's front garden. This was game over and he cried all the way home....well until he decided it was fun to throw snowballs at a not very pleased Pinky!

I charged the camera up last night to take some photos, although I must admit it is difficult to find fresh and interesting photos  It was fun to take photos of Pavan clearing the drive whilst dodging snow balls and I did get a nice macro shot of the snow. If you click on the picture and zoom in you can see some nice flakes.

Snow taken with macro lens

Next week: 

So what will happen next week?

 I think we are in the prime location in the SE as we are expected to keep the easterlies for some time but there is also a possibility of some northerlies. Either way it looks likely to stay cold for at least the next 7 days with some possible snow showers.  10 days ago I would have said winter was over but looks like Feb is going to be an interesting and cold month!

Will it or Won't it??

Daily Mail reports a change in weather 

There are strong signals this weekend that the weather is about to change, with the cold weather from the east winning the battle with the Atlantic. What will be critical to what  happens next week will be where the high pressure ends up and so we could either end up with a nice easterly or it will be the north west that ends up with all the  snow when the cold and mild air clashes.

Whilst we will probably see some frosts and maybe some ice days in the UK the rest of europe is looking extremely cold, with Germany forecast at - 22 degrees!!!

The chart below is for next Thursday at 06:00 and whilst cold I don't believe we will see any snow until at least Friday but probably Saturday. Living a few miles from the Thames I am hoping for some excellent Thames streamers if we have the anticipated easterly winds.

Temperatures at 2m for Thursday 2nd Feb

I am travelling next week and plan to be in the Midlands on Monday and Yorkshire the rest of the week. I should be where the snow is, especially when the easterlies are forecast to be best in the south east next Friday / Saturday which is when I plan to be home. My only concern is the driving though, I need to make sure I have a tank of Petrol and some warm clothes in the car just in case I get stuck and with a rear wheel drive BMW I hope I am not driving when the snow starts!

An interesting week ahead!

First real frost of Winter

This winter has been abysmal for cold weather. Yesterday was the 3rd day this winter where I have recorded a sub zero temperature.  The low yesterday for Cliffe Woods as -1.5 compared to frost hollow Ellis, in Hawley, at -5.2. The local fields looked amazing in white and the photos below where quick snaps taking on the good old iPhone 4s!

Even with the cold nights and the forecast of more cold next week  the lack of rain will probably mean limited snow. Last year was the 2nd driest year I have recorded at 418mm  which is around 40% lower than a normal year. January 2012 has started of in a similar vain as well. Whilst we are stuck in a zonal weather pattern at the moment, with the atlantic determining our weather, it is not helping out with rain in the South East.

Oh and for the record I don't believe we will see and really cold weather in Jan or snow and whilst I will be disappointed I can't see Feb being any different either!

What a shite winter!!

Windy miller!!!

Whilst it still looks like my winter forecast is hopeless with no cold weather in sight, today's weather has been interesting. On the way into work this morning they closed the Dartford bridge due to high winds and looking at the data from the weather station I recorded my highest gust since I purchased the weather station in 2006.


















Then tonight, at sunset, after 8 mm of rain came a beautiful red sky. Looking at the horizon towards London was stunning but this picture from the iphone doesn't do it justice